Sports betting is a rapidly growing gambling industry, which both innovative technologies and modern trends are applicable to. What new happens in the current industry? What development trends are forecasted and what involves modern bettors most of all?
The way sports betting deregulation in the USA will affect the global market
One of the main world events, which can’t be ignored in the betting industry development context is the sports betting legalization in the USA. The repeal of Federal Law (PASPA), dated 1992, which hindered the betting segment development in America, contributed to a new market emergence. Earlier people had to visit Las Vegas to make a bet legally. But the situation changed in May 2018. Now, almost throughout America, players are entitled to use the current service. Deregulation, according to many experts, can’t positively affect on the market development as a whole. They believe that the overall sports betting growth rate will increase.
However, there are the current opinion opponents. Some people tend to look at the situation positively, while others are confident that American betting industry legalization and regulatory aspects may extremely damage certain segments. Some American sports, including basketball, baseball and hockey, are major sports betting markets. Deregulation will further increase their liquidity level, which will definitely result in higher ratios.
It’s worth mentioning that the increased liquidity provides the rate operator with the same absolute profit level. On the other hand, information will be more actively disseminated, which will result in more reliable forecasts, provided by bookmakers. This is more beneficial for the player. He will have an access to more reliable data. Therefore, he’ll be able to make the right decisions when making bets, which will result in increased market efficiency.
Big Data and sports betting
It’s worth noting the sports analytics has slightly changed the interaction way between sports and fans. For example, advanced tennis analytics is used to determine an opponent’s capabilities in tennis. The data is based on player’s strength, past results, points number scored, as well as his opponent’s strength. Today football clubs may use sophisticated algorithms to collect the opponents’ strength data. Data transforms sport. This invariably affects the sports betting segment.
Big Data is being quickly implemented in sports betting. Some market players have started to develop forecasting models, able to be adapted to both individual and team sports. However, there are something which can’t be automated. For example, an electronic system can’t predict things like player injury. Therefore, the human contribution to analytics is still incommensurable.
Arbitrage bets or «forks»: growing popularity
Arbitrage bets are deemed a difficult move. This means a simultaneous betting, made from different accounts, on a different event’s result. This is a betting system, which guarantees getting a profit, despite the result. However, it’s quite complicated to realize the way to determine the discrepancy between the chances and the way to use it. Bidders usually take into account the spread when evaluating the market. Moreover, the probabilities calculated on all probabilities results basis, are more than 100%. However, there is a chance to catch the events, where this amount is less than 100% while using different accounts. Such players are trying to get a negative spread and thus provide risk-free profit. But bookmakers figure out such players and punish them by blocking.
Value bets concept
Value betting increases the player’s winning volatility, compared to the arbitrage bets. However, he will be rewarded for the additional risk, which he is exposed to. I.e. value bets are the ones underestimated by the bookmaker, according to the bettor’s opinion.
Let’s look through the following example. Team A plays with a 2.5 odd to win. This means this bookmaker believes that team A has got 40% chance to win. However, you made your own research and explored the market. The real victory probability for Team A is 60%, according to your forecasts. This means the ratio should be 1.66. So, you calculate the value as follows: (0.6 × 2.5) – 1 = 50%. This team has got a 50% chance to win.
Now the current discrepancy is one of the betting analysts’ research objects.